In 2006, the Democratic Party won a large victory over the republicans taking over a majority amount of seats in the Senate. While this victory was a large one, it may be downplayed due to the feelings around the Democratic Party that 2008 could be an even bigger year. The democrats are looking to expand that majority. The Republicans need to defend 22 seats while the Democrats are defending only 12, and the Republican Party has been tarnished with the decreasing approval of the Iraq war and recent scandals in the party. Robin Toner suggests that this “political map” is not the only reason for this new optimism for 2008. She suggests that the political climate will also play a large role in this expansion of majority. The political climate will affect the fundraising (who gets what, and how much), and also will push strong party candidates to jump into key races while the incumbent Republican is most vulnerable. It also makes it a very difficult time for the incumbent Democrats to walk away and retire seeing the pendulum shifting in the favor of there party. One of the strongest proponents of the idea of political climate affecting the 2008 senate races is the expected announcement of former governor Mark Warner into the West Virginia Senate race. This is a position long held by Republican senators. Proving that the national tides are favoring the Democrats. The Democratic Party also will have no retirements in 2008 while the Republicans have three expected retirements in 2008, and open seats in congress make for a more “up for grabs” situation, also favoring the Democrats. In 2006 we saw the political climate pendulum slowly moving to the left, but expect a larger shift in 2008 that will favor the democrats. This is interesting to us because, like the Republican Revolution of 1994, we may be entering into a new era of politics where the dominating party is the Democrats. With this change of preferences, will we see a change in outcomes/ policy? The American people have only one alternative in the two party system, and they are putting there hope into the Democrats, who can hopefully change the outcomes and put this country on a new path.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/12/us/politics/12web-toner.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
3 comments:
Michael,
Though I would like to agree with you that the votes are swinging democrat, I would have to say it definately is not as clear cut as you are making it seem. Yes, the presidency has an extremely low approval rate, especially for the war in Iraq, but Congress' approval rate is also very low. Many polls show that American's believe the new Congress has not done enough, not followed through with their promises. It seems to me that both parties are going to need to make some changes, and the democrats don't have the support that many may think. However, I sure hope they get it before the election!
I believe that the Democrats will gain more seats in the upcoming elections, but I am not sure how long they are going to keep them. At least some Democrats have gained seats because they were able to push the blame for the war, as well as other issues, on the the republicans. If the Democrats take that majority, and the presidency who will they be able to push the blame on. Hopefully the war does not get worse, because I would love to see this Dem. majority for some time, but if it does I am sure that Republicans will be the first to point out all the successes that the Bush Adminstration had how poorly the Dems have done.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5961048
I have to say I agree with you that the general feeling is that the votes are going to swing democrat, but nothing is certain yet. I for one felt there was no way President Bush could ger re-elected in '04 and I was proven wrong, so all I have to say is that I agree with what you are saying, but know for sure that everything could shift the other way by next November.
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